A Model of Regional Transport and Logistics Complex Considering the Road Safety Factor

Abstract

The relevance of the study is due to the need to move from a formal assessment of the efficiency of the regional transport and logistics complex (TLC) to the management of its sustainable and safe development. In the context of the implementation of the Transport Strategy of the Russian Federation until 2030 (with a forecast until 2035), the integration of road safety (RS) is of particular importance, not as a passive indicator of accidents, but as an internal regulator that can influence the structure and parameters of logistics operations. The study empirically verifies the hypothesis: including road safety in the TLC performance assessment model improves predictive accuracy and identifies socially unsafe development scenarios formally recognized as "effective" in traditional approaches. The proposed methodology represents a replicable and practically applicable tool for executive authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, enabling them to reallocate investments, adjust logistics routes, and formulate balanced transport strategies based on a balance between economic efficiency and public safety.