Urban Entrepreneurial Stratum as an Indicator of Political System Resilience: Lessons from Iran for Central Asia

Abstract

Introduction. Against the backdrop of accelerating urbanization and the transformation of economic models, the urban entrepreneurial stratum emerges as a key social actor. Its economic behavior and social sentiments directly reflect the effectiveness of state governance and macroeconomic stability, serving as a critical marker of the socio-political resilience. Goal. The study analyzes the role of the urban entrepreneurial stratum as a structural indicator of political system resilience under conditions of institutional transformation and socio-economic change. Materials and methods. The study is based on an interdisciplinary approach synthesizing Max Weber’s concepts of legitimacy, Karl Polanyi’s «embeddedness» of the market, and Theda Skocpol’s structural theory of revolutions. The empirical basis includes a comparative analysis of Iran’s historical experience, as well as modern socio-economic processes in Central Asian countries, Afghanistan and Iraq. Results and discussion. It is established that the loyalty of entrepreneurs is determined by institutional predictability and the protection of their economic interests, while their discontent signals a crisis in state governance. The Iranian case demonstrates how the restriction of “bazaar” autonomy led to its participation in the 1979 revolution, while subsequent economic monopolization by quasi-state structures provoked the erosion of business loyalty. Analysis of Central Asian countries reveals regional features: dependence on migration flows and informal networks reduces the likelihood of political mobilization by redirecting social pressure abroad, yet makes entrepreneurs a sensitive indicator of institutional maturity. Conclusion. The urban entrepreneurial stratum serves as a universal barometer of state governance quality. For Central Asian states, maintaining a balance between state control and the economic autonomy of business is a key condition for long-term stability and the successful modernization of political systems.