Socio‑economic development and internal migration in Russia: Is there any connection?

Abstract

Introduction. In Russia, a persistent decline in internal migration has been observed over a number of years, while the number of relocations decreased by more than one quarter in just a few years. Similar trends have been documented not only in Russia, as shown by previous studies. Purpose. This paper is to explain the decline in interregional migration in Russia, taking into account the academic practices in this area in developed countries. Materials and methods. To empirically analyse the relations between interregional migration flows and in-equalities in the socio-economic development of regions, both qualitative and quantitative methods are employed. Empirically, qualitative analysis relies on expert interviews conducted by the authors. The quantitative analysis is based on Rosstat data for 2011–2023. The results of the expert survey confirm the link between migration activity and socio-demographic changes. An important aspect is the relationship between migration and regional labour markets, the newly emerged opportunities for decent employment without relocating to another region, and the expansion of flexible types of employment. The hypothesis about the impact of interregional inequality on the decline in migration did not receive full support. Although the study does not identify a statistically significant association between migration indicators and aggregate measures of regional development, it does provide evidence of a significant relation between migration and inequalities in the economic and social development of regions. In addition, there are grounds to assume relations between migration and lagged indicators of inequality in aggregate measures of regional development. Conclusions. The findings do not give the conclusions about causal relationships between migration and the socio-economic development of regions. It cannot be ruled out that the recent dynamics of internal migration indicators are related to the impact of migration on interregional inequality and polarisation: the concentration of human capital in a limited number of major receiving centers leads to stronger interregional inequality at the national level. Overall, the findings indicate a weakening link between social and spatial mobility in Russia, which is consistent with the trend observed in other countries, although these findings require further investigation.