Transformation of the interrelationships of trade balance, liquidity and government bond market

Abstract

Subject. Transformation of the interrelationships of the trade balance, liquidity and the federal loan bond market. Objectives. To assess the structural transformations in the interrelationships between the trade balance, the liquidity management tools of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the federal loan bond market in the context of geopolitical fragmentation and sanctions pressure. Methods. The study is based on time series analysis using correlation and regression analysis, as well as a combined forecasting approach combining trend extrapolation with expert scenario modeling. Results. The article reveals a break in the historically stable relationship between the trade surplus and the dynamics of the government bond market, a radical expansion of the practice of lending to non-market assets as a key instrument for maintaining liquidity, as well as the transition of the federal loan bond market to a "closed" market model dominated by an internal investor. It is proved that the classical monetary models of export revenue recycling require modification for the conditions of sanctions isolation. The stability of the financial system in the new conditions is determined by the balance between the risks of concentration in the segment of non-market assets and the development opportunities of the domestic capital market. Conclusions. The novelty of the study lies in assessing the transformation process of the interrelationships of the trade balance, liquidity and the federal loan bond market, and the practical significance is determined by the possibility of applying the results of the Bank of Russia and executive authorities to form an adaptive monetary policy and effective management of public debt.