Critical analysis of the development of the Russian banking system
Abstract
Subject. The banking system of the Russian Federation as an institution of financial intermediation. Objectives. A critical multidimensional analysis of the development of the banking system of the Russian Federation. Methods. Quantitative analysis of aggregated data from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation using descriptive statistics, regression analysis of trends, volatility assessment and correlation analysis. Results. The steady dynamics of the monetization of the national economy and the deepening of financial intermediation have been established. The asymmetry of the distribution of indicators is revealed, due to a long-term upward trend, where crisis episodes act as short-term deviations from the main trajectory. The structural analysis confirmed the success of the de-dollarization policy, which manifested itself in a decrease in the share of foreign currencies in the money supply and loan portfolio, as well as in the priority growth of term ruble deposits. The dominance of the credit channel of monetary emission has been empirically verified, consistent with the theory of endogenous money, where credit expansion is a key driver of money supply growth. The volatility assessment demonstrated the differentiated stability of the segments – the core of the monetary system is characterized by stability, while retail lending and foreign exchange assets are subject to high risks. The high adaptive potential of the banking system has been confirmed, which is able to return to a long-term trend after crisis disturbances, despite the persistence of structural imbalances. Conclusions. The scientific novelty of the study lies in a comprehensive assessment of long-term institutional transformations, which confirmed the stability of the credit channel of monetary issuance and the adaptive potential of the banking system, which determines the practical value of the results for calibrating the macroprudential policy of the regulator and improving the risk management strategies of credit institutions.