Beyond forest cover: a global analysis of qualitative transition pathways and their ecological consequences

Abstract

While most research tracks forest area changes, a critical gap exists in understanding the qualitative pathways behind them and their ecological consequences. Current approaches, including Forest Transition Theory, often treat diverse forests and monoculture plantations as equivalent, masking the damaging ‘great forest swap.’ This study addresses this by analysing global data (1990–2025) to classify transition pathways and their impacts. It reveals that Intensive Degradation is the most common pathway (32% of countries), and that Active Substitution, where natural forests are replaced by plantations, is an ecologically damaging trend. The research’s novelty lies in linking pathway types to carbon and institutional drivers, showing stark differences in carbon storage and proving that strong governance and secure land tenure more than triple the odds of a restorative pathway. This evidence establishes that forest outcomes are political. Consequently, international climate and biodiversity policies should urgently shift from area-based to quality-based accounting and prioritize strengthening institutions in order to protect vital forest ecosystems.