Pengaruh Pendapatan Asli Daerah terhadap Kinerja Keuangan Pemerintah Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Jawa Tengah Tahun 2020–2024

Abstract

Fiscal capacity among local governments in Indonesia still varies a great deal, and it is not always clear whether a larger own-source revenue base actually translates into better financial management. This study examines whether Local Own-Source Revenue (PAD) influences the financial performance of regency and city governments in Central Java Province during the 2020–2024 period, and whether the audit opinions issued by the Supreme Audit Agency (BPK) act as a moderator in that relationship. An associative quantitative design was applied to a balanced panel consisting of 35 regencies and cities observed over five years (175 observations), drawn from Local Government Financial Reports, BPK audit reports, and DJPK publications through purposive sampling. Financial performance was proxied by an efficiency ratio, while government size (log of total assets) served as a control variable, and the data were analyzed in EViews 13 using panel-based moderated regression. Model selection tests (Chow, Hausman, and Lagrange Multiplier) confirmed the Co-Effect Model. The estimation results indicate that PAD has no significant effect on financial performance, and the interaction between PAD and BPK audit opinion likewise fails to produce a significant moderating effect, mainly because almost every sampled government received an unqualified (WTP) opinion, leaving too little variation for a moderation effect to surface. These findings imply that budgetary efficiency is more plausibly shaped by factors outside PAD and audit-opinion quality alone.