FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A REGIONAL ECONOMIC SYSTEM: THE CASE OF THE MOSCOW REGION

Abstract

The article examines current trends and strategic directions of the socio-economic development of the Moscow Region in the context of the transformation of the Russian economy in the 2020s. The relevance of the study is обусловлена the need to adapt regional economic policy to new external and internal conditions, including structural changes, sanctions pressure, transformation of logistics chains, and a shift toward domestic sources of growth. The paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators of the Moscow Region, including gross regional product, industrial production index, investment activity, and the development of the trade sector. It is established that the region maintains its position as one of the leaders in socio-economic development in the Russian Federation, demonstrating resilience to external shocks and a high level of economic adaptability. At the same time, trends of slowing economic growth and the presence of structural imbalances that constrain further development are identified. In conclusion, it is emphasized that effective strategic planning of regional development should be based on the integrated use of modern data analysis methods, including statistical and econometric tools. The proposed approaches can be used by public authorities and the expert community in the development and implementation of socio-economic development strategies for regions of the Russian Federation.