Decomposition of economic resilience determinants of construction development enterprises: systemic, cyclical, project and crisis determinants

Abstract

The article develops a methodological approach to causally decompose economic resilience in construction development enterprises by separating systemic, cyclical, project, and crisis determinants. The purpose is to identify each block’s contribution to the observed loss of a selected economic outcome and to reveal cross-block effects that amplify or mitigate this loss. The methodological framework combines systems and factor analysis, scenario neutralization, comparison with a justified baseline trajectory, and the Shapley-value principle. Rather than constructing a universal resilience score, the approach starts with a concrete economic function that management seeks to preserve, such as free cash flow, liquidity reserve, portfolio margin, debt-service capacity, or active-portfolio value. A four-block determinant map is formed; the order-invariant contribution of each block to total loss, its relative structural weight, and a pairwise interaction measure are determined. This makes it possible to distinguish structural fragility of the business model from cyclical deterioration, project-portfolio weaknesses, and extraordinary shocks, and to identify combinations in which determinants reinforce or partly offset one another. The practical procedure evaluates all combinations of the four blocks, calculates their average marginal contributions, and converts the results into a management-priority map. Scientific novelty lies in combining determinant classification with unbiased attribution of total economic-result loss, regardless of factor-entry order, and explicitly measuring cross-block interaction. Practical significance consists in linking the diagnosed contribution to an appropriate management horizon: structural reconfiguration, countercyclical policy, project-portfolio rebalancing, or crisis-continuity protocols. Further research should focus on empirically calibrating neutralization scenarios, estimating contributions with panel data, and integrating the decomposition framework with probabilistic stress testing and digital project-control systems. Keywords: economic resilience; construction development; factor decomposition; Shapley value; systemic determinants; project portfolio; crisis shocks; economic diagnostics.