Summoning the Oracle to Slay It: Mitigating Look-Ahead Bias in Financial Backtesting with Large Language Models
TL;DR
FinCAD is proposed, an inference-time adaptation of Context-Aware Decoding that attenuates contributions from memorised historical outcomes without retraining and raises the subset-averaged in-sample/out-of-sample Spearman correlation on an eleven-model leaderboard.
Abstract
Backtesting large language models (LLMs) on historical financial data is unreliable when their pre-training data include the evaluated events. An LLM trained in 2024 may already encode how stocks moved during 2018-2020. We name this failure parametric look-ahead bias and propose FinCAD, an inference-time adaptation of Context-Aware Decoding that attenuates contributions from memorised historical outcomes without retraining. FinCAD pairs an adversarial bias-discovery pipeline that learns a model-specific memory-activating prior prompt with an entity- and date-adaptive rule that scales the CAD strength using a per-(entity, date) confidence signal. Across five 7-14B LLMs and five mega-cap equities, the largest model-level mean in-sample return correction is -67.1%. For the three larger models, 2025 out-of-sample returns remain within $8K and mean Sharpe within $\pm$0.10 of baseline; mean general-benchmark accuracy remains positive or within -1.7 points for four of five models. On an eleven-model leaderboard, FinCAD raises the subset-averaged in-sample/out-of-sample Spearman correlation from +0.779 to +0.846, yielding rankings that are more closely aligned with post-cutoff performance.
