RESEARCH ON THE TRANSFORMATION OF UKRAINE’S EXPORT LOGISTICS CHAINS UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF RAIL TRANSPORT TARIFF INCREASES

Abstract

Purpose. Due to large-scale aggression and security threats to the functioning of logistics infrastructure in Ukraine, ensuring stable exports of products from the agro-industrial complex (AIC) and the mining and metallurgical complex (MMC) has become critically challenging. In 2026, the rail transport tariff reform emerged as an additional destabilizing factor, highlighting the urgent need to identify rational freight delivery routes. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis and mathematical modeling of the structural reorganization of transport and technological lines for exporting grain cargo and iron ore raw materials under the impact of a 30% railway tariff indexation. Methods. Methods of systemic and comparative analysis, technical and economic calculations, mathematical modeling of shippers’ total unit costs, and parametric optimization of logistics chains. Results. The study conducted on the logistics chains of specific enterprises (IMC agroholding and Northern GZK) demonstrates that the price increase of the railway component shifts the critical modality equilibrium point from 115.6 km to 184.2 km deeper into the country. It is proved that for AIC products, the transformation is modal in nature, with a massive transition to road transport in near-port zones. In contrast, for MMC, the transformation is geographical and volumetric, leading to the forced curtailment of long-haul overland routes to border crossings (due to a price increase of 159 UAH/t) and the concentration of flows on short-haul routes to sea terminals. Scientific novelty. For the first time, the patterns of structural reorganization of Ukraine’s export supply chains under martial law have been formalized, and the differentiation in the nature of logistics transformation for highly elastic and inelastic segments of the freight transport market has been proven. Practical significance. The results obtained and the developed mathematical model allow for the optimization of shippers’ total logistics costs. Furthermore, they substantiate the feasibility of the state regulator shifting toward flexible differentiated tariff regulations to preserve the carrying capacity of the transport system and the freight base of railway transport.