Priority-Weighted System Dynamics for Cost-Effective Risk Mitigation in High-Risk Storage Facilities

Abstract

High-risk storage facilities function as sociotechnical systems in which technical reliability, human performance, organizational control, and environmental stress interact over time, so their risk cannot be captured by a single probability-impact score. This study develops a priority-weighted System Dynamics model to evaluate risk mitigation strategies prior to implementation, using ammunition storage as the empirical case. Analytic Network Process (ANP) weights, validated through a Fuzzy Delphi panel, are embedded directly in the stock-flow structure so that the relative importance of interdependent risk factors shapes how risk evolves under each policy. Over a 60-month horizon, the baseline raised the Total Risk Index (TRI) from 29.65 to 44.57, whereas full implementation of the prioritized mitigation set lowered it to 14.88. Under a 50% budget, ANP-guided allocation reduced the index to 24.04, while equal allocation under the same budget raised it to 38.77. The prioritized limited-budget scenario also achieved the highest Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (CER) (2.518). The model supports comparative scenario evaluation and engineering decision-making rather than deterministic prediction of explosion events.