N-PPI is proposed, a pointwise extension of Prediction-Powered Inference that calibrates model predictions at inference time as a lightweight post-hoc layer, without re-training the underlying model, to make accurate check-worthiness detection substantially cheaper to operate at scale.
Abstract
Assessing claim check-worthiness is an essential first step in automated fact-checking pipelines. This work is motivated by a real deployment challenge at an early-stage startup: running large language models (LLMs) over every incoming claim is cost- and latency-prohibitive, yet smaller models sacrifice accuracy. We propose NN-PPI, a pointwise extension of Prediction-Powered Inference (PPI) that calibrates model predictions at inference time as a lightweight post-hoc layer, without re-training the underlying model. NN-PPI achieves weighted F1 gains ranging from 12% to 33.80% depending on the size and performance of the baseline model, bringing SLMs on par with larger LLMs. Beyond few-shot SLMs, NN-PPI further improves a production-deployed fine-tuned model, demonstrating that residual calibration is complementary to supervised fine-tuning. By recovering LLM-level accuracy from models that are an order of magnitude cheaper to serve, it makes accurate check-worthiness detection substantially cheaper to operate at scale. Our code and data can be found at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/arr-claim-worthiness-F237.
CruxBench is introduced, a benchmark that grades LLM-generated questions by their Value of Information (VOI): how much a model-proposed crux updates beliefs about a target forecasting question and finds that VOI correlates highly with independent measures of model capability and captures cruxes'usefulness for answering...
Hui Dai, Li-Na Piao, Nick Merrill et al.· 0 citations
It is argued that each NLP subfield should pair its main performance metric with a calibration score and call for treating calibration as an essential property of every model rather than a niche topic.
Mario Sanz-Guerrero, Katharina von der Wense· 1 citation
Large language models (LLMs) are widely used for claim verification, yet remain brittle for numerical reasoning: even small changes in value can sharply degrade accuracy. We show that this brittleness persists in frontier LLMs, but can be mitigated through adversarial fine-tuning on numerically perturbed examples. Usin...
Claim-level decomposition combined with post-hoc calibration reduces expected calibration error on factual questions while exposing failure modes on adversarial false-premise questions where decision-makers most need reliable uncertainty estimates.
Toghrul Abbasli, Kentaroh Toyoda, Yuan Wang et al.· 0 citations
Pinocchio is introduced, an external calibrator that estimates the correctness of responses from black-box API models that needs only a single forward pass to generate an uncertainty estimate and requires no access to the target model's logits, weights, or internal states.
K. D. Hayes, Arka Pal, Hao-Song Zhang et al.· 0 citations
Results support ZS as a low-overhead reference within the four evaluated benchmarks and the stated model, quantization, prompt, and decoding settings, with model–task exceptions.
Seyoung Kim, Bonggyun Ko· Applied Sciences· 0 citations