People–Land Coordination Under Uneven Development: Mismatch Patterns, Spatiotemporal Evolution, and Driving Factors in China’s Urban Agglomerations

Abstract

Urban agglomerations concentrate human populations, economic activities, and land development, but gains in land-use efficiency do not necessarily progress synchronously with improvements in human-development capability. This study examines the coordination and mismatch between population high-quality development (PHQD)—referring specifically to the high-quality development of the human population—and land green use efficiency (LGUE) across 131 cities in six major Chinese urban agglomerations from 2011 to 2023. PHQD is measured using the entropy-weighted TOPSIS method. LGUE is measured using a non-oriented global super-efficiency slacks-based measure (SBM) model with undesirable outputs. People–land coordination is assessed using a modified coupling coordination degree (MCCD) model combined with a relative development index (RDI). Kernel density estimation, Dagum Gini decomposition, and Geodetector are applied to analyze distribution dynamics, disparities, and spatially stratified associations. MCCD rose from 0.311 to 0.419, although most cities remained at relatively low coordination levels. PHQD-lagging was the dominant mismatch type in 2023, involving 98 of 131 cities. Overall MCCD inequality declined from 0.138 to 0.103, while transvariation replaced between-group differences as the largest disparity component. Economic development had the strongest explanatory power, and all pairwise interaction q values exceeded the corresponding single-factor q values. Sustainable urban transformation therefore requires coordinated investment in human capital and public services alongside continued improvements in resource- and environmentally constrained land-use efficiency.