Skip to content

Comparing Stochastic Training Environments for Deep Reinforcement Learning with Deep Q-network: Learning Stability and Transfer to Real Data

Oct 2026 · Journal of Mathematical Models and Methods in Engineering
Stock Market Forecasting Methods

Abstract

The paper investigates how the choice of a generative stochastic model of the training environment affects the numerical stability of the learning and the transfer of the Double DQN policy to real time series. Four environments — GBM, GARCH(1,1)-t, Minimal Neural SDE, and Neural Jump-Diffusion — are compared, created on chronologically previous data of three financial time series: NVDA, SPY, and KO. For each combination of asset and environment, ten training runs are performed, a total of 120, with the architecture, state and action spaces, reward functions, and hyperparameters unchanged. The transfer was evaluated on a 250-day chronologically separated real window. Differences were found between the environments in all groups of indicators studied. Training in the GARCH environment was accompanied by the largest temporal-difference error and the largest gradient norms, but at the same time the smallest discrepancy of state space ranges and the lowest turnover on all three assets. In the Double DQN configuration used with Huber loss function and gradient clipping, no numerical divergence of estimates was observed in 120 runs; at the same time, the positive bias of Q-scores was preserved in all twelve asset–environment combinations. . In 14 of the 120 runs, the trained agent outperformed the corresponding fixed-allocation baseline selected on synthetic validation data. Agents generally held a larger share of capital in the asset when trained in environments with higher drift, although this pattern was not consistent across all assets. The obtained results characterize the engineering interaction between the generative environment and the DQN agent, but do not indicate the superiority of agents over passive deterministic control bases.

View source

Similar papers

#machine learning Review Open access Oct 2014

Software development in startup companies: A systematic mapping study

The results indicate that software engineering work practices are chosen opportunistically, adapted and configured to provide value under the constrains imposed by the startup context.

Nicolò Paternoster, Carmine Giardino, M. Unterkalmsteiner et al. · 394 citations · ⚡54
#computer vision Open access Jun 2016

Software Development in Startup Companies: The Greenfield Startup Model

The results are packaged in the Greenfield Startup Model (GSM), which explains the priority of startups to release the product as quickly as possible, and the need to shorten time-to-market, by speeding up the development through low-precision engineering activities.

Carmine Giardino, Nicolò Paternoster, M. Unterkalmsteiner et al. · 178 citations · ⚡14
#machine learning Review Open access Jun 2014

Why Early-Stage Software Startups Fail: A Behavioral Framework

This state-of-practice investigation was performed using a literature review followed by a multiple-case study approach and presents how inconsistency between managerial strategies and execution can lead to failure by means of a behavioral framework.

Carmine Giardino, Xiaofeng Wang, P. Abrahamsson · 175 citations · ⚡19
#computer vision Open access Oct 2016

Software Startups - A Research Agenda

Software startup companies develop innovative, software-intensive products within limited timeframes and with few resources, searching for sustainable and scalable business models.

M. Unterkalmsteiner, P. Abrahamsson, Xiaofeng Wang et al. · 157 citations · ⚡17
#machine learning Review Open access Oct 2016

“Failures” to be celebrated: an analysis of major pivots of software startups

This study conducts a case survey study based on the secondary data of the major pivots happened in 49 software startups, and demonstrates that customer need pivot is the most common among all pivot types.

Sohaib Shahid Bajwa, Xiaofeng Wang, Anh Nguyen-Duc et al. · 127 citations · ⚡15
#computer vision Review Open access May 2015

A survey study on major technical barriers affecting the decision to adopt cloud services

The comparison of adopter and non-adopter sample reveals three potential adoption inhibitor, security, data privacy, and portability, which underlines the importance of the technical and security perspectives for research investigating the adoption of technology.

Nattakarn Phaphoom, Xiaofeng Wang, S. Samuel et al. · 111 citations · ⚡8

Related blog posts

Microsoft Research Blog Oct 12, 2026

Simulating student learning for better AI tutoring

StudentSim is a research system for evaluating and improving AI tutoring tools before they are tested with learners. It models how individuals may engage with tutors, giving feedback to improve tutor performance across subjects like chess, writing, and mathematics. The post Simulating student learning for better AI tutoring appeared first on Microsoft Research.

GPT-Lab Aug 28, 2026

We built an AI factory for HVAC control

What does it take to trust AI-driven HVAC optimization? Our AI Model Factory combines agents, machine learning, reinforcement learning and deterministic checks in a governed workflow designed for messy, real-world building data. The post We built an AI factory for HVAC control appeared first on GPT-Lab.

We use cookies to run the site and, with your consent, for analytics and to show ads. See our Cookie Policy.