Comunicación política y legitimación en la consulta popular de Ecuador en 2024

Abstract

In Ecuador, referendums are not only a mechanism of direct participation; they also operate as instruments of political legitimation in which the citizen vote ratifies or sanctions the leadership that convokes them. This article examines the referendum of April 2024, with the aim of understanding the role of political communication in shaping public opinion during referendums. To this end, the study adopts a convergent mixed-methods design with an interpretive scope based on documentary review, analysis of public opinion surveys, systematization of electoral results, and review of political discourses and content disseminated on digital platforms. The findings show that Daniel Noboa’s high approval ratings, the predominance of a security-centered discourse, and the digital construction of his public image favored the government's victory in nine of eleven questions. However, the rejection of hourly work contracts and international arbitration demonstrates that presidential popularity does not replace citizens’ assessment of sensitive issues. The article concludes that referendums function as arenas of political-communicational dispute in which leadership, media frames, opinion climate, and expectations of victory interact. This logic poses deliberative limits for direct democracy when the vote is organized around the presidential figure rather than the content of the questions.