Measuring Harness-Induced Belief Divergence in Multi-Step LLM Agents

STOCKTAKE: Measuring the Gap Between Perception and Action in LLM Agents with a Fair Oracle

LLM agents are increasingly evaluated on multi-week decision tasks in which the state that drives cost is never directly observed. On such tasks the final cost cannot say why an agent failed: it may have misread the world, or read it correctly and still failed to act (the knowing-doing gap). Existing evaluations cannot separate these two failures; their reference policies either read privileged information the agent never sees, or are missing altogether. We introduce STOCKTAKE, a 26-week supply-chain replenishment benchmark built as a factored partially observable Markov decision process with six hidden factor processes, designed so that a fair reference policy is computable: an exact Bayes filter per factor drives a rollout policy on the identical observation stream the agent receives. Scoring each run between a symptom-blind base-stock floor (0) and this oracle (1) yields a skill score, and grading each week's written rationale yields a stated-belief detection lag and a knowing-doing rate, so state estimation and control are measured separately. On fifty seeds with curated stress profiles, Claude Sonnet 5, GPT-5.4, DeepSeek-V4-Pro, and Grok 4.5 detect 84-88% of hidden failures, typically within a week of onset, yet span skill scores from 0.62 to -0.23: two of the four end below the symptom-blind floor while naming factors slightly faster than the two that beat it. The failure has two faces. Where stress persists, 34-43% of correctly diagnosed stress weeks still end in stockout for every model, a rate that partly reflects the severity of the weeks models notice. That rate also runs opposite to skill: the two models under the floor stock out least on diagnosed weeks, so under-response is only one face of the gap, and their traces point to the other, responses whose cost exceeds what they protect. STOCKTAKE measures both directions of that failure.

Auditing Belief-Conditioned LLM Agents in Hidden-Information Social Deduction Games

An auditable framework is built that maintains an external belief state over hidden roles, logs belief updates and belief-action deviations as structured evidence, and supports a defensive offline improvement loop that reviews bad cases before any strategy change.

Agent Step Value: State-Transition Measurement with State-Grounded LLM Evaluators

Track, Rank, Crack: Epistemic Working Memory Scales Multi-Hop Reasoning in Language Agents

Language agents that interleave reasoning and tool use degrade sharply as reasoning chains lengthen, even when each individual step is easy. We trace this to context dilution: an agent's investigative state (what it has confirmed, what it suspects, and what it still needs) lives only implicitly in a growing context window, where early discoveries are buried under later retrievals. We introduce SLEUTH, which makes this state explicit and actionable through a structured epistemic working memory: the agent maintains Confirmed Facts grounded to sources, Active Hypotheses ranked by evidence, and Open Questions that directly drive its next action. Across five multi-hop benchmarks and five established baselines, SLEUTH's advantage grows with difficulty, from +5 points on HotpotQA to +11 on 4-hop chains, surpassing Reflexion without multiple episodes. Analyzing where the remaining gap lies, we identify the evidence sufficiency problem: agents often find the answer but fail to commit, exhausting their budget on needless verification. A lightweight commitment trigger fixes this, but only when the agent already maintains structured state: the identical trigger applied to an unstructured agent yields no improvement, isolating organized epistemic state as the necessary condition for effective commitment. Finally, enforcing protocol adherence on a weaker model recovers up to +19 points on the hardest problems, showing that how an agent organizes its reasoning, not raw model capability, is the active ingredient for scaling multi-hop reasoning.

Prime Agent: A Self-Improving RLM Harness

Language models are sequential processors, but long-horizon agency requires external information and computation beyond model weights and active context. Prime Agent is an open-source harness for long-horizon evaluation and coding-agent workflows. A persistent IPython REPL follows the Recursive Language Model abstraction for programmatic context processing and test-time compute, while Continual Harness preserves histories, memories, skills, prompts, and subagent specifications across trajectories. Recursive subagents coordinate through direct agent-to-agent communication, and the Agents View lets humans inspect and manage daemon-backed sessions. Prime Agent standardizes execution, recovery, verification, and resource accounting while leaving strategy construction to the model. This low-friction, expressive membrane prevents harness failures from becoming model failures and pushes measurement toward the model's true maximal underlying capability. Prime Agent raises ARC-AGI-3 RHAE Best@1 from 30% to 95.5% and matches or exceeds native and popular harnesses across long-context coding, GPU-kernel generation, emulator construction, and autonomous nanoGPT speedruns. On Factorio, we find refinement allows for continuous technology progression and dedicated subagents enable parallelized work. Code is available at https://github.com/PrimeIntellect-ai/prime-agent.

Critic Experience Bank: Self-Evolving Step-Level Confidence Estimation for LLM Agents

LLM agents act in external environments where each action changes the state that later decisions condition on, and where a single wrong step can waste interaction budget or trigger irreversible side effects long before the final failure is observed. Reliable deployment therefore requires \emph{step-level confidence estimation}: a calibrated probability that each proposed action is productive, available \emph{before} the action is executed. Existing LLM confidence estimators are designed to score a response from the given prompt, but agent confidence also depends on execution consequences: whether similar actions in similar situations actually advanced the task after the environment responded. We introduce the \method (\methodshort), a self-evolving critic framework in which an LLM critic accumulates evidence from its own past judgments and their observed consequences. After each trajectory, a hindsight LLM that sees the full execution feedback votes on whether each step was productive. The resulting pseudo-labels populate a memory bank from which related productive and unproductive experiences are retrieved into the critic's prompt whenever a similar step recurs. \methodshort requires no training and uses no ground truth step labels. Across three agent benchmarks and three critic backbones, \methodshort attains the best calibration (ECE and Brier) and ranking (AUC) in every dataset--critic combination, reducing ECE by up to $54\%$ relative to the strongest training-free baseline.