Drought, conflict, and recovery: Disentangling the drivers of vegetation dynamics and surface temperature change in Kirkuk Governorate, Iraq (2000-2024)

Abstract

This study presents a 24-year spatiotemporal analysis of vegetation dynamics and land surface temperature (LST) in Kirkuk Governorate, northern Iraq, from 2000 to 2024. MODIS NDVI (MOD13Q1), MODIS LST (MOD11A2), and CHIRPS rainfall data were processed in Google Earth Engine to assess environmental change across four phases: baseline (2000-2005), pre-conflict (2010-2013), ISIS conflict (2014-2017), and post-conflict recovery (2018-2024). Vegetation trends were evaluated using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's Slope estimator. Mean annual NDVI increased by 21.6%, from 0.1995 during the baseline phase to 0.2426 during the recovery phase. Significant greening occurred across 56.2% of the governorate (5,470 km²), while only 0.8% (78 km²) experienced browning. Two major periods of vegetation decline were identified: the 2007-2009 regional drought, when mean NDVI fell to 0.1397, and the 2014-2017 ISIS conflict, during which vegetation declined in western districts despite near-average rainfall, indicating conflict as an independent driver of degradation. Mean annual LST decreased from 38.37 °C in 2000 to 32.33 °C in 2024, consistent with the inverse relationship between vegetation cover and surface temperature. The findings provide quantitative evidence of conflict-driven vegetation degradation followed by post-conflict ecological recovery, offering valuable insights for land management and agricultural recovery planning in semi-arid, post-conflict regions.