Decadal biogeochemical predictions for the changing bottom marine environment of the Gulf of Maine

Abstract

The Gulf of Maine and the surrounding Northeast US Continental Shelf are experiencing rapid marine environmental change arising from complex regional dynamics that challenge near-term (1–10 years) predictive capabilities for valuable living marine resources. Here, using a high-resolution regional ocean model, we demonstrate skilful decadal forecasts of ocean bottom habitat characteristics including bottom temperature, dissolved oxygen (O 2 ), pH and aragonite saturation state (Ω ar ). Bottom temperature and pH predictions show substantial skill driven primarily by radiatively forced change and carbon uptake trends, while bottom O 2 and Ω ar  predictions benefit more from initialization due to stronger internal variability. Retrospective forecasts successfully predicted observed historical changes in water masses and environmental properties, including recent cooling/freshening transitions driven by replacement of Warm Slope Water with Labrador Slope Water. This water mass variability also modulates biogeochemical conditions and ocean acidification buffering capacity, with our recent forecasts indicating that benefits from the expected respite from rapid warming might be tempered by challenges posed by rapid acidification. The demonstrated predictability of coupled physical-biogeochemical processes supports developing integrated prediction systems for climate-informed marine resource management.