Climate Change Impacts on the Distribution Patterns and Habitat Suitability of the Oriental Stork ( Ciconia boyciana ) in China: Implications for the “30 × 30” Conservation Targets

Abstract

ABSTRACT The Oriental Stork ( Ciconia boyciana ), a wetland flagship species, faces threats from climate change and human activities. Assessing habitat suitability dynamics and identifying priority conservation areas are essential for implementing the “30 × 30” target of the Kunming‐Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. We integrated an optimized MaxEnt model with the HSI‐InVEST habitat quality model to predict potential suitable habitats and key drivers for this species in China under current and future climate scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP5‐8.5, 2041–2100), and delineated priority conservation areas. The optimized MaxEnt model performed excellently (mean AUC = 0.943). Six dominant factors were identified: altitude (suitable range: −3.5 to 11.7 m), precipitation of the wettest month, distance to lakes, distance to roads, mean diurnal temperature range, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. Currently, suitable habitat covers 106.57 × 104 km2 (11.1% of China's land area), mainly in eastern China. Under future scenarios, suitable habitat is projected to expand (0.22%–7.82%) and the centroid of potentially suitable habitat is projected to shift northeastward (centroid migration: 16.82–77.22 km), with precipitation as a key driver. Overlaying MaxEnt predictions with HSI‐InVEST habitat quality identified priority areas (suitability ≥ 0.4, habitat quality index ≥ 0.8), concentrated in lake beach and floodplain wetlands of the North China Plain, Huang‐Huai‐Hai Plain, and Jianghuai region. We recommend designating these priority areas as core conservation zones with strict spatial control and hydrological regulation, and planning ecological corridors in northeastern expansion zones. This multi‐model coupling framework provides theoretical support for optimizing wetland waterbird conservation strategies.