An M5Boost framework is proposed that successfully integrates an additive residual learning methodology with the model tree structure and significantly outperformed state-of-the-art models reported in the literature on the same dataset.
Abstract
Range estimation for electric vehicles (EVs) is critical for intelligent transportation systems since it directly affects charging planning, route optimization, driver confidence, energy management, battery utilization, and driver decision-making processes. However, current studies still suffer from issues such as limited accuracy, insufficient interpretability, high computational complexity, dependence on simulation environments, or insufficient generalization capability under dynamic driving conditions. To address these limitations, this paper proposes an M5Boost framework that successfully integrates an additive residual learning methodology with the model tree structure. Unlike conventional boosting approaches, M5Boost combines iterative residual-driven learning, multivariate leaf regression models, tailored tree pruning, and specific smoothing mechanisms to improve prediction accuracy, robustness, and generalization capability for EV range estimation. A benchmark dataset was further systematically extended with newly collected real-world battery-related driving records. Experimental validation showed that the developed model significantly outperformed state-of-the-art models reported in the literature on the same dataset.
Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires a transition from conventional fossil-fuel-powered vehicles to alternative energy sources, such as electricity. However, reliably predicting energy consumption under highly variable real-world driving conditions and across different temporal horizons remains a critical challenge regarding the widespread adoption of Electric Vehicles (EVs), directly impacting the precision of range estimation, route planning, and charging strategies. To address this, a novel approach is proposed, combining advanced machine learning models—such as XGBoost, Random Forest, and regression-based techniques—with innovative dataset manipulation using statistical methods. The methodology integrates feature engineering to incorporate vehicle-specific metrics, including driving patterns and environmental conditions, ensuring that models dynamically adapt to real-world scenarios. The proposed framework demonstrates high accuracy and robustness in predicting energy consumption, providing valuable insights for sustainable transportation and efficient energy management toward SDG achievement.
Vasileios Pitsiavas, Georgios Spanos, Sofia Polymeni et al.· Sustainability· 0 citations
The increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) as a sustainable alternative to internal combustion engine vehicles has intensified the need for accurate and interpretable energy consumption prediction models to support vehicle design, battery management, and charging infrastructure planning. This study presents a physics-informed machine learning framework for predicting EV energy consumption using a dataset of approximately 300 electric vehicle models sourced from publicly available vehicle specifications. A reduced-order physical model derived from the work–energy theorem and Newtonian mechanics was developed to bridge classical vehicle dynamics theory with data-driven modeling, incorporating vehicle mass, aerodynamic drag coefficient, and the mass-to-battery-capacity ratio as physically meaningful input features. Five regression algorithms Linear Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and Support Vector Regression were implemented and evaluated under a consistent 5-fold cross-validation framework using R², RMSE, and MAE as performance metrics. Random Forest achieved the highest predictive accuracy (R² = 0.841, RMSE = 1.593 kWh/100 km), followed by Linear Regression (R² = 0.837) and XGBoost (R² = 0.820), while LightGBM and SVR demonstrated substantially weaker performance. Feature importance analysis confirmed that battery capacity, vehicle mass, and driving range are the most influential predictors, consistent with the physics-informed framework and recent literature. The convergence between data-driven findings and physical interpretations validates the proposed approach as a robust, transparent, and scalable tool for EV energy modeling, with direct applications in sustainable transportation planning and evidence-based energy policy.
Emine Can, Elif Selay Hayal, Maksude Selina Yavuz et al.· International journal of res...· 0 citations
With the rise in environmental concerns and global shift toward sustainable mobility, accurately predicting energy consumption in hybrid vehicles (HVs) is essential for reliable transportation planning and optimizing efficient energy management. This study employs the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) dataset to develop predictive models for estimating energy usage in HVs. In this paper, four machine learning models (XGBoost, Linear Regression, Random Forest, and Neural Network) are implemented to analyze and compare their effectiveness in forecasting energy consumption. The dataset is preprocessed and standardized, followed by model training and 5-fold cross-validation. The performance of each model is determined using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and the Coefficient of Determination (R²). Among them, the Random Forest model achieved the best effectiveness with lower RMSE and MAE along with the highest R2 score for predicting energy consumption in hybrid vehicles. The findings show the prospective of machine learning techniques, particularly the Random Forest model, which delivers the highest accuracy in predicting hybrid vehicle energy consumption. This result supports more informed decision-making for developing eco-friendly transport solutions, reducing fuel consumption and emissions.
Bishawajit Chakraborty, Arpita Paul, Bhubon Thiotonius Costa et al.· Engineering· 0 citations
Given the significant discrepancy between the official driving range of new energy vehicles and users' real-world experience, this paper analyzes the range attainment rate by considering three key factors: ambient temperature, driving speed, and air-conditioning operation. To address this issue, this study collects and preprocesses real-world test samples from media platforms such as Autohome and Dongchedi, combines them with official test reports from the China Automotive Technology and Research Center (CATARC), and constructs a range prediction model based on multiple linear regression. The empirical results reveal that ambient temperature acts as the dominant factor influencing driving range variation, contributing to nearly 40% of total range attenuation, while high-speed driving and air-conditioning operation also significantly increase vehicle energy consumption. Across several test scenarios, the coefficient of determination (R²) remains at 0.84, and the prediction residuals fall within a 15% error band. These results show that the proposed model can partially correct the prediction bias in traditional NEDC/CLTC standards under extreme operating conditions. It also provides a quantitative basis for driving decisions under complex conditions and may improve users' confidence in trip planning.
Yixin Liu· Applied and Computational En...· 0 citations
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