УПРАВЛІННЯ РИЗИКАМИ ЛАНЦЮГІВ ПОСТАЧАННЯ У МІЖНАРОДНИХ ІНВЕСТИЦІЙНИХ ПРОЄКТАХ

Abstract

The article thoroughly substantiates the theoretical and methodological principles of researching supply chains in international investment activities in the conditions of modern geopolitical turbulence, global macroeconomic fluctuations and rapid technological transformations. Based on a critical analysis of existing scientific approaches, the essential characteristics of the international investment environment are determined and the specifics of its logistics component, which is a key factor in the competitiveness of capital-intensive projects, are revealed. The work systematizes and models a complex three-level architecture of logistics risks, which allows for a detailed classification of global macroeconomic and geopolitical threats, customs barriers, currency fluctuations, cross-border restrictions, as well as internal infrastructure and operational risks, including the deficit of hub capacity. Particular attention is paid to the identification of force majeure circumstances and latent threats, in particular hidden financial instability and opportunistic behavior of counterparties, and their destructive cascading impact on the final performance of the investment process and the payback schedule of capital is determined. As part of the development of analytical tools, an author’s methodological approach to multi-level vulnerability analysis of logistics systems is proposed, which includes assessment at the level of a separate node, regional hub and the global network as a whole. The assessment process is synchronized with methods for identifying key stakeholders and mapping their logistical interests, which allows identifying areas of hidden conflicts and information asymmetry at the early stages of business planning. Based on the integrative and process approaches, a holistic adaptive risk management system has been formed, which ensures end-to-end interaction of all participants in the international consortium. Key factors for the success of overcoming logistics barriers have been identified, among which the leading role is played by structural diversification of routes, the conscious creation of reserve capacities and safety stocks according to the Just-in-Case strategy, as well as the introduction of flexible contracts. It has been proven that the main driver for ensuring long-term strategic sustainability and adaptability of logistics flows is the deep digitalization of management based on artificial intelligence tools and big data analytics, which transform uncertainty into manageable project parameters.