Using value of information in recovery planning for imperiled species

Abstract

Conservation decision making often employs predictive models to assess expected effectiveness of different management strategies. However, uncertainty in model parameters may erode confidence in model predictions and recommended actions. Value of information (VOI) can be used to determine the degree to which reducing parametric uncertainty is expected to improve the outcome of management decisions. Here we demonstrate how VOI can support recovery planning of imperiled species using a case study of the alligator snapping turtle. For this species, there was high uncertainty in expert elicited survival rates in the presence of anthropogenic threats, and particular concern that this uncertainty would jeopardize the ability to prioritize management strategies. We constructed simulation scenarios based on hypotheses that true survival rates were overestimated, accurately estimated, or underestimated relative to quantities elicited from experts. We simulated populations under each survival rate hypothesis and a set of generic management strategies that may be considered by managers, and calculated expected value of resolving uncertainty using three different metrics of population viability. We found that the expected VOI was low, and the same strategy was selected as optimal in nearly every scenario and metric. This hypothetical case study demonstrates how VOI can inform managers when the expected decision outcome is robust to uncertainty.