Trip Generation and Emission Estimation for a Toll Access-Integrated Economic Area: A Peri-Urban Corridor Case Study

Abstract

This study examines the traffic and environmental impacts of integrating a toll access node with an Integrated Economic Area (IEA) in a peri-urban corridor along the Yogyakarta–Bawen Toll Road. A quantitative framework decomposes traffic demand into existing, toll-induced, and IEA-generated trips, projects each over 40 years, and estimates VKT-based emissions. Results show strong demand amplification, especially early in operation, as combined trip generation accelerates growth beyond conventional projections. While the Banyurejo T-intersection performs acceptably under planned upgrades, environmental impact is significant: annual VKT rises more than fourteen-fold, with CO₂ emissions climbing from about 4,700 to over 67,000 tonnes/year by 2070. These findings expose the limits of conventional impact assessments focused on traffic alone and highlight the need for integrated frameworks that combine mobility and emissions dimensions. The novelty of this study lies in its integrated decomposition framework, which jointly quantifies existing, toll-induced, and land-use-generated traffic components and links their long-term projections directly to vehicle-kilometers-traveled-based emission estimation, an integration rarely addressed in conventional transportation impact assessments.