Foreign exchange market of the Russian Federation in 2026: transformation, challenges and prospects

Abstract

The article is devoted to a comprehensive study of the Russian foreign exchange market under conditions where sanctions pressure has reached an unprecedented scale, and the financial sector is forced to restructure literally on the fly. The author examines how exactly the ruble quotes against the dollar, euro and yuan behave, what reasons underlie the exchange rate instability, and how the very “architecture” of the market has changed after the blocking of the NCO and the suspension of exchange trading in dollars and euros. A separate block of issues is related to the policy of the Bank of Russia: what the regulator is doing in terms of monetary regulation, and how effective its instruments are today. A significant part of the work is devoted to the processes of de-dollarization and how rapidly the yuan has taken a dominant position in the structure of foreign exchange transactions. The empirical base consists of data for 2025–2026, expert opinions of major banks and analytical centers. In the final part, specific guidelines are proposed to strengthen the stability and sovereignty of the domestic foreign exchange market.