A Study on the Carbon Emission Reduction Effects and Spatial Heterogeneity of Livestock Manure Fertilizer Substitution Driven by the Rural Revitalization Strategy in China

Abstract

Promoting manure-based fertilizer substitution is important for nutrient recycling and agricultural carbon mitigation under China’s Rural Revitalization Strategy and dual-carbon agenda. Using provincial panel data for 31 provinces in mainland China from 2017 to 2024, this study develops an integrated framework to estimate livestock manure resources, manure-borne nutrient supply, and the technical carbon-mitigation potential of mineral fertilizer substitution. Dagum Gini decomposition, global Moran’s I, and a Spatial Durbin Model are used to examine inequality, spatial dependence, and driving factors. Results show that national manure resources and nutrient supply followed a decline–rebound pattern, while carbon-mitigation potential increased after 2019 and remained relatively high. Interprovincial inequality was moderate to high, and mitigation outcomes exhibited significant positive spatial dependence. Manure resource intensity was the main local driver of mitigation, whereas the effects of fertilizer intensity and mechanization showed clear regional heterogeneity. By linking nutrient cycling with carbon mitigation in a spatial framework, this study provides evidence for differentiated regional policies on manure resource utilization in China.