Is the EKC Valid for Cement CO₂ in the G7? A Rolling Window Approach

Abstract

This study investigates the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis for cement-related CO₂ emissions in the G7 economies over the period 1960–2023. Cement production is among the most carbon-intensive industrial activities, making its environmental impact especially relevant for advanced economies committed to decarbonization. Methodologically, the analysis integrates the full-sample bootstrap panel causality test with a rolling-window bootstrap framework, allowing for both static and time-varying causal inference. The full-sample results suggest broad causality from growth to emissions, with the exception of Canada and the United States. However, the rolling-window estimations uncover hidden causality across all G7 members, which emerges episodically and clusters around economic downturns, energy crises, and regulatory transitions. These findings indicate that the growth–emissions nexus is highly conditional and state-dependent, underscoring the importance of dynamic econometric approaches. Policy recommendations emphasize the adoption of cleaner production technologies, integration of climate objectives into national strategies, and stronger international cooperation to ensure sustainable growth.