Cryospheric risks in the Himalayan region: impacts and community perceptions on snow avalanches and GLOFs in Chitral, Pakistan

Abstract

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) and snow avalanches pose recurrent threats to mountain communities across the Himalayas, Karakoram, and Hindukush regions. Recent glacier retreat, driven by rising temperatures, has intensified GLOF risk. Remote sensing-based inventories have mapped 3044 glacial lakes in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB). This study examines the impact of GLOFs and snow avalanches on livelihoods and infrastructure in Chitral District, as well as community perceptions of these hazards. Data were collected through household surveys in 10 villages, yielding 350 responses. Descriptive analysis was conducted to assess the extent of damage caused by these events. The findings reveal that while livestock losses were relatively minor, the effects on agriculture, crops, and infrastructure were substantial. Critical infrastructure, such as irrigation systems, roads, and bridges, required repairs that took 9 months or more to complete. A paired sample t-test further highlights a gap in risk awareness. While snow avalanches are widely recognized as a serious threat, local planning and preparedness efforts often underestimate GLOFs, despite their severe consequences. The study emphasizes the importance of involving local communities in decision-making and resilience planning to address these evolving hazards effectively.