The Fragmented Dilemma and Optimization of China's Natural Gas Technology Innovation from a Policy Portfolio Perspective: A Quantitative Analysis Based on 189 Policy Documents

Abstract

As a key transitional energy source for achieving the "dual carbon" goals, the scientific and technological innovation capacity of the natural gas sector directly impacts China's energy security and industrial structure transformation. Based on 189 natural gas science and technology innovation policy documents issued by central and local authorities between 1978 and 2025, this study constructs a three-dimensional analytical framework encompassing "objectives – tools – actors" and employs content analysis and social network analysis methods to quantitatively deconstruct the structural characteristics of the policy system. The research reveals that China's natural gas science and technology innovation policies exhibit a distinct "triple disjunction" pattern: in terms of objectives, policy support for increasing upstream reserves and production is severely inadequate; in terms of tools, rigid constraint instruments such as measures and regulations account for less than 9%, creating a "soft constraint" dilemma; in terms of actors, cross-sectoral coordination is highly concentrated among a small number of core departments under the National Development and Reform Commission, resulting in a pattern of "formal coordination but substantive isolation." The root cause of this fragmentation lies in the compartmentalized administrative system, policy volatility driven by short-term political agendas, and an assessment and incentive mechanism that tends to "avoid addressing critical issues." These three dimensions reinforce each other, forming structural barriers that constrain innovation efficiency.