Deciphering Attention in Finance:

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between market attention and price movements in Bitcoin and the S&P 500 Shariah Index from 2015 to 2025. Using Google Search Volume (GSV) as a proxy for online attention, the analysis evaluates how attention is associated with asset-price dynamics alongside selected macro-financial factors. The methodology combines median-split regressions, cointegration and VECM analysis, variance decomposition, impulse response functions, and Granger tests. The findings indicate that search-based attention exhibits more consistent short-run associations and predictive information for Bitcoin, particularly under higher-attention conditions. The Islamic equity results are more heterogeneous: attention shows weaker and less stable short-run relationships and are also associated with a fundamental and macroeconomic factors. Robustness analysis using Ethereum and the FTSE Shariah All-World Index yields a broadly comparable cross-asset pattern. By bridging the gap between modern digital assets and traditional Islamic financial instruments, this study contributes insights into the evolving dynamics of global finance, underscoring the importance of attention-based sentiment analysis in understanding market behaviour.