Effect of Evolution of Electricity Emission Factor on Evaluation of Effectiveness of Decarbonization Measures in European Countries

Abstract

The evaluation of the effectiveness and sustainability of decarbonization measures, especially but not only through electrification, is not trivial. Combustion technologies improve by small amounts year to year and as the emission factors of fuels can be considered constant across European countries; however, the emission factors of electricity generation are not uniform among countries and do not share a common trend in their evolution over time. These two aspects, the different evolution trends of electricity emission factors and the non-uniformity of these factors among countries, can lead to unexpected results: under/overestimation of carbon savings and sustainability in the long-term forecast in the massive technologic transition in both the civil and industrial sectors. This paper, using trend observations and the Myopic model, highlights possible biases in the long-term projection of CO2 emissions savings in the industrial sector. This study focuses on a comprehensive investigation of the integration of a high-temperature heat pump into a combined cooling, heating, and power plant. A detailed assessment of the system’s energy performance is conducted through steady-state simulations under both fixed boundary conditions and annual operational scenarios, addressing building heating, cooling, and electrical requirements across varying electricity emission factors for different European countries and evolution trends until 2050, with the results compared with conventional energy production systems.