Spatiotemporal Evolution of Carbon Reduction Potential from End-of-Life Resource Utilization of Onshore Wind Power in China

Abstract

Wind power is a cornerstone of China’s renewable energy development, supporting the green and low-carbon transformation and “dual-carbon” goals. With rapid capacity growth and an approaching wave of decommissioning for early onshore wind, assessing the carbon reduction potential from resource recovery is critical yet challenging. This study establishes a net carbon emission assessment framework covering operational and recycling stages, evaluating the carbon reduction potential of decommissioned materials including steel, copper, and resin. Results show that total carbon reduction from resource utilization grows steadily, under the assumed end-of-life resource-utilization pathways; the cumulative carbon reduction potential during 2025–2045 is estimated at approximately 90.85 million t CO2-eq., with steel contributing roughly 60%. Between 2025 and 2045, carbon reduction from decommissioned wind power materials rises from 1.93 to 5.28 million tons of CO2-eq., stabilizing the industry’s net emissions at 21 million tons from 2040. Four regional evolution patterns were identified: continuous growth in major wind power bases such as Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang; peak–fallback in early-developed provinces such as Henan and Ningxia; late-stage rise in eastern and central provinces such as Jiangsu and Guangdong; and platform fluctuation in northeastern provinces such as Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning. These estimates are based on static life-cycle emission factors, exclude transportation between wind farms and recycling facilities, and do not incorporate formal sensitivity or probabilistic uncertainty analysis; therefore, the absolute mitigation values should be interpreted as scenario-based estimates rather than precise forecasts. The findings suggest that authorities should implement differentiated regional decommissioning strategies and plan forward-looking wind power industrial chains to maximize resource recovery and support national dual-carbon objectives.