Earthquake Crisis Management in Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province, People's Republic of China

Abstract

Background and Aims: Megacities face a low-frequency, high-consequence earthquake risk characterized by dense population, infrastructure complexity, and cascading failure potential. Guangzhou, a core metropolitan center in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, exemplifies this governance challenge. This study aimed to: (1) analyze Guangzhou's earthquake crisis management system and specific risks; (2) identify challenges and gaps in the existing framework; and (3) propose innovative strategies and a guidance framework for high-density urban earthquake management. Methodology: A qualitative case study design guided by Quarantelli disaster lifecycle theory was adopted. Four independent variables government administrative capacity, technological innovation capacity, disaster preparedness and mitigation systems, and public awareness and education constituted the conceptual framework. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with 20 purposively selected key informants from government officials (n=6), technical experts (n=5), community representatives (n=5), and academic scholars (n=4), and analyzed using thematic analysis. Results: Guangzhou's primary risk stems from high-density exposure and cascading lifeline failures. The central performance bottleneck is interface failure: weak translation between data and decisions, plans and actions, warnings and behavior, and resources and aid. Early warning systems are technically advanced but socially underutilized. Four integrative discoveries emerged: (1) interface failure as a crisis multiplier; (2) early warning as behavioral governance; (3) preparedness inequality as a performance driver; and (4) routine governance embedding as a resilience path. An Integrated Urban Earthquake Resilience Framework (IUER) with five strategic pathways is proposed. Conclusion: Effective earthquake crisis management in megacities requires a shift from siloed, technology-centric approaches to humanized, interface-focused governance. Strengthening operational interoperability, embedding preparedness into routine urban governance, and designing early warning as a behavioral system are essential pathways for building equitable resilience in high-density urban environments.