Transformations of violence and protection in the context of state erosion in Syria: Sweida, July 2025 as a model

Abstract

This study examines the events of Sweida in July 2025 as an explanatory case for understanding the transformations of violence in contexts of State erosion. It starts from a research problem represented by the inability of the literature to explain the transition from security violence to identity-based violence, where the explanation is often reduced to the collapse of institutional capacity without analyzing the intermediate mechanisms producing this transition. The research aims to explain how discursive delegitimization, in light of the decline of the state monopoly on violence, contributes to the reshaping of patterns of violence, protection and legitimacy. The analysis is based on a theoretical framework that combines the literature of state failure and spectroscopy theories, with procedural tracing adopting an approach to the analysis of causal mechanisms within the state. The key variables, erosion of institutional capacity, discursive delegitimization, intensity of violence, local protection, and legitimacy of violence, were operated on via observable indicators to ensure inference accuracy. The research is based on procedural tracing to analyze the causal mechanism within a single case. The study also systematically contributes to the employment of procedural tracing in the analysis of a contemporary conflict. The results show that the violence arose not only from local clashes, but was preceded by a rhetorical delegitimization process that redefined the Druze community within a threatening framework, contributing to the creation of a justifying environment for targeting. With the intervention of the state in a multi-actor environment, the monopoly of violence eroded and escalated, turning into identity-based violence characterized by targeting civilians and a high intensity of violations. This has led to a de facto transfer of protection functions to local actors, as the Druze community has reproduced autonomous security arrangements, in parallel with a shift in the legitimacy of violence towards a functional framework based on protection rather than a legal framework. The scientific novelty consists in showing that discourse does not act as a concomitant factor, but as a preliminary causal mechanism in the production of violence, in identifying the intensity of violence as an intermediate variable that accelerates the shift towards identity-based targeting, in addition to highlighting the role of local communities as actors reshaping protection in contexts of State erosion. The study contributes to providing an integrated causal model linking discourse, violence and legitimacy within an analytical sequence applicable to similar situations. The results indicate that late interventions to restore institutional control do not prevent the transfer of protection to the local level, and ignoring the rhetorical dimensions in the early stages contributes to accelerating the course of escalation,highlighting the importance of analyzing the discourse as part of the dynamics of violence and not as a secondary factor