Demographic and Clinical Factors Associated with Unsuccessful Treatment Outcomes among Tuberculosis Patients in Mimika Regency, Central Papua

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a public health issue in Indonesia, which had the world’s second-highest TB burden in 2024, accounting for 10% of global cases. Mimika Regency, Central Papua, is among districts with a high TB burden in Indonesia. This study aimed to describe demographic and clinical characteristics of TB patients and identify factors associated with unsuccessful treatment outcomes in Mimika Regency in 2025. A retrospective analysis of secondary program data was conducted using the Mimika Regency SITB TB.03 patient register from January to December 2025. Of 2,407 registered patients, 857 (35.6%) had a final treatment outcome at extraction; analyses were restricted to this subset, and incomplete outcome recording may introduce selection bias. Univariate, bivariate (chi-square/Fisher’s exact test), and multivariate logistic regression analyses used Python. Most patients were male (57.5%), with median age 31 years; 88.7% had pulmonary TB and 73.7% were new cases. Among patients with outcomes, 72.7% achieved treatment success, while 27.3% had unsuccessful outcomes. Bivariate analysis showed associations with age group, TB site, previous treatment, HIV status, and occupational status. Multivariate analysis identified HIV-positive status (aOR=2.19; 95%CI: 1.24–3.87; p=0.007), extrapulmonary TB (aOR=1.78; 95%CI: 1.12–2.82; p=0.015), and unknown occupational status (aOR=1.64; 95%CI: 1.09–2.45; p=0.017) as factors associated with unsuccessful outcomes, while age <15 years was associated with lower odds (aOR=0.56; 95%CI: 0.36–0.88; p=0.012). Given limited outcome data, findings should be interpreted cautiously. Strengthening TB-HIV services, comorbidity screening, and completeness of TB recording may improve treatment outcomes and program monitoring.