Global Epidemiological and Epizootiological Characteristics of Brucellosis and Analysis of the Situation in the Russian Federation in 2025 with a Short-Term Forecast

Abstract

This review characterizes global epizootic and epidemic situation regarding brucellosis. Based on an expert assessment, a short-term forecast for incidence of the disease in the Russian Federation for 2026 is provided. Globally, there is an upward trend in human brucellosis incidence in regions with developed livestock farming within endemic areas, with the exception of European Union countries, where a decline in cases of brucellosis has been observed (though approximately half of these cases are linked to traveling to endemic countries or consumption of imported animal products). Over the past four years, the Russian Federation has seen an alarming 25–40 % increase in human brucellosis incidence compared to long-term average figures. Furthermore, a comparison of 2022–2025 period with 2016–2019 reveals (26.3 %) increase in the average number of constituent entities (primarily in the Central and Volga Federal Districts) reporting brucellosis outbreaks, indicating a geographical expansion of the infection. One of leading factors contributing to deterioration of epizootic situation regarding brucellosis is systemic crisis in veterinary monitoring and low effectiveness of control over livestock registration and movement. Given these trends, incidence rate in 2026 is projected to be 30–40 % higher than long-term average values. The number of human brucellosis cases in the Russian Federation is expected to remain consistent with 2024–2025 levels, falling within the range of 500–550 cases (0.35–0.38 per 100,000 population).