Living beyond the tsunami: Hydrometeorological disasters, poverty, and social resilience in Aceh, Indonesia

Abstract

Aceh, Indonesia, continues to face persistent disaster risks in the aftermath of the 2004 tsunami, particularly from recurring hydrometeorological hazards such as floods and extreme weather. While the region has made significant progress in post-tsunami recovery, challenges remain in addressing socioeconomic vulnerabilities and ensuring long-term environmental sustainability. This study aims to examine the hazard impact of hydrometeorological disasters, poverty, and social resilience on vulnerability to disasters across districts in Aceh. Using an analysis model of Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) on district-level panel data (2018-2025, 23 districts in Aceh). This research explores how disaster exposure interacts with poverty dynamics, regional growth, and social assistance. The results reveal that social assistance plays an important role in reducing regional vulnerability to disasters in Aceh. Social assistance indicates that increased support strengthens social resilience in disaster-prone areas. In contrast, poverty is found to increase vulnerability, highlighting persistent socioeconomic constraints in disaster management. Hydrometeorological disaster frequency also shows a positive effect, confirming that recurring hazards continue to exacerbate regional risks. Meanwhile, regional economic growth has no meaningful impact, suggesting that economic expansion alone is insufficient to reduce vulnerability without inclusive and adaptive development strategies.