Composite Artificial Intelligence-Enabled Electrocardiogram for Detection and Prediction of Structural Heart Disease

Abstract

Background Structural heart disease (SHD) drives heart failure and cardiovascular mortality but remains underdiagnosed, and echocardiography is limited as a population-level screening tool. Objectives We evaluated whether a composite artificial intelligence-enabled electrocardiogram (AI-ECG), combining independently developed models for left ventricular systolic (LVSD) and diastolic dysfunction (LVDD), identifies prevalent and predicts incident SHD across diverse populations. Methods In this multinational cohort study, detection was assessed cross-sectionally in a Korean clinical cohort (Incheon Sejong Hospital) and a US dataset (Columbia University Irving Medical Center), and incident risk was assessed in the Korean cohort and the UK Biobank among individuals without baseline SHD or heart failure. Adults with paired ECG and echocardiography were analyzed for detection, with the composite defined as positive on either model. SHD comprised reduced left ventricular ejection fraction, moderate or severe valvular disease, left ventricular hypertrophy, or pulmonary hypertension. Detection was assessed by sensitivity and specificity, and incident risk by Cox models and the C statistic. Results Among 46,082 and 36,286 participants in the two detection cohorts, the composite detected SHD with sensitivity of 71.8% and 76.1% and specificity of 88.3% and 70.1%, with positivity across all phenotypes. Among at-risk individuals, composite positivity was associated with incident SHD (hazard ratios, 3.75 and 2.75), with C statistics of 0.69 to 0.78. Conclusions A composite AI-ECG identified prevalent and predicted incident SHD across multinational cohorts, capturing signals beyond its training targets and supporting its potential as a scalable cardiovascular screening tool; whether ECG-based risk stratification improves outcomes requires prospective evaluation.