Beyond the noise: information, institutions, and societal change

Abstract

Democracies function as complex systems of interdependent institutions. Their current global decline calls for a closer examination of their internal structures and information flows. This thesis investigates how information environments affect institutional and societal developments across three domains: legal transitions, information seeking, and the spread of new norms and policies. Chapter 2 examines the political economy of legal regimes. A theoretical model shows that societies transition from strict liability to negligence regimes when political equality increases and judicial efficiency improves, in line with historical developments in Europe. Chapter 3 analyzes how citizens respond when media coverage is biased or noisy. A theoretical model distinguishes between predictable ideological bias and unpredictable noise. It shows that citizens can anticipate and correct for predictable bias, whereas unpredictable noise prompts additional information seeking. An empirical analysis of data from the start of the COVID-19 pandemic provides evidence consistent with these predictions. This suggests that media reliability is more important for informed decision-making than media neutrality. Chapter 4 examines the mechanics of social learning. When deciding whether to abandon an established status quo for an uncertain alternative, decision-makers can learn either through trial and error or by observing the actions of early adopters. The model shows that social learning is more likely when agents are relatively similar. An empirical illustration based on the global diffusion of same-sex marriage legalization provides evidence consistent with such social learning.