Energy Demand Forecasting and Power Supply Requirements for North Luzon: A 2026–2035 Assessment
Abstract
This study examined the historical energy-delivery pattern of North Luzon from 2013 to 2025 and developed a transparent indicative energy-requirement reference for 2026–2035 to support power-supply and transmission planning. Guided by a conceptual and analytical framework integrating historical energy-delivery patterns, temporal variation, indicative future energy requirements, and power-system planning considerations, the study employed a descriptive documentary and secondary-data research design. No human respondents, questionnaires, or interviews were involved. The principal empirical source was the Energy Delivery Per Region workbook, supported by relevant technical and energy-planning documents. Annual and monthly energy-delivery records were analyzed using totals, absolute and percentage changes, regional comparisons, and compound annual growth rate. Results showed that North Luzon energy delivery increased from approximately 9.90 million MWh in 2013 to 19.28 million MWh in 2025, representing an overall increase of 94.84%. The 2021–2025 period recorded a 25.50% increase, while 2025 monthly data showed April as the highest-delivery month at approximately 1.812 million MWh and January as the lowest at approximately 1.431 million MWh. Using the 2021–2025 CAGR of approximately 5.84%, the indicative energy-requirement trend reached about 20.41 million MWh in 2026 and 34.02 million MWh in 2035. These values are descriptive extrapolations and not official demand forecasts. The study concludes that future planning should consider generation availability, transmission capability, seasonal variation, infrastructure condition, operational constraints, and data quality. It recommends regular updating of the regional dataset and the use of indicative trends together with authorized forecasts and detailed engineering studies. The study supports Sustainable Development Goal 7 on affordable and clean energy and Sustainable Development Goal 9 on resilient and sustainable infrastructure. Its sustainability contribution lies in strengthening evidence-based, transparent, and forward-looking energy and infrastructure planning for North Luzon.