Road freight transport in Spain, 2012–2024: a mixed-methods assessment with SARIMA forecasts

Abstract

Road freight transport remains the backbone of inland freight movement in Spain and a fundamental enabler of logistics performance, territorial cohesion, and supply chain continuity. Yet its dominant position is increasingly challenged by labour shortages, rising operating costs, stricter environmental requirements, and the need to adapt to digital and energy transitions. In this context, Spain provides an informative case for examining how freight systems respond to overlapping structural pressures and cyclical fluctuations. This study investigates the evolution of Spanish road freight transport from 2012 to 2024 through a mixed-methods design that combines qualitative and quantitative evidence. Expert interviews are used to identify the main structural strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats shaping sector performance. Statistical comparisons of means and variances are then applied to assess differences across major commodity groups. Finally, a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model is estimated to examine trend and seasonality and to produce short-term forecasts. The findings show that the sector combines extensive territorial coverage and operational flexibility with persistent structural constraints, particularly those associated with driver shortages and exposure to cost and regulatory pressures. Freight dynamics vary significantly across commodity groups in both volume and volatility. The conditional 2025 SARIMA baseline reproduces recurrent seasonality and yields higher point forecasts for the reported months than their 2024 counterparts; however, the model explains approximately 24.9% of variability on the transformed and differenced estimation scale, and remaining residual autocorrelation limits any claim of generalized structural growth. The study advances an integrated analytical framework that links strategic sector assessment with freight modelling, offering evidence relevant to transport policy and operational planning.