Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Drivers of Anthropogenic Fires in Northern China’s Agri-Pastoral Ecotone

Abstract

Anthropogenic fires in agro-pastoral ecotones are understudied. Using Ordos data (1987–2020) and machine learning, we identified fire drivers and patterns. Fires clustered in eastern populated areas, increased after 2000, and peaked recently, with April seasonality. Human-related ignitions dominated. Slope, humidity, and precipitation consistently drove burned area. Fires shifted to lower, drier, cooler conditions, suggesting possible advancing fire season and increasing human influence. Ecological restoration has been associated with increased fuel continuity, and the temporal coincidence suggests a potential restoration–fire paradox, although this hypothesis requires direct testing. Management should prioritize spring vigilance and fuel integration; better data on human behavior and fine fuels are needed for early warning.