Designing Resilient Space Governance for Latecomer Nations: A Comparative Systems Approach to Mongolia’s Space Strategy

Abstract

As the global space sector enters the NewSpace era, developing countries such as Mongolia face significant challenges in developing functional space programs without the institutional legacy of established space powers. This study examines the gap between Mongolia’s long-term development strategy, “Vision 2050”, its sectoral policy guidance for space science and technology, and the absence of a comprehensive national space governance system. Using Qualitative Systems Analysis (QSA), the study compares governance arrangements across advanced, developing, and emerging spacefaring nations. The method enables comparative evaluation of institutional interactions, regulatory adaptability, and governance structures in national space systems where quantitative indicators remain limited or difficult to standardize. The findings indicate that direct replication of traditional “Old Space” institutional models often produces structural misalignment in latecomer states with limited financial and technological capacity. In response, the study proposes an Agile Governance Model (AGM) based on the Governance–Resilience–Agility (GRA) Triad. The model combines strategic coordination, adaptive regulation, and operational implementation through a flexible governance structure emphasizing phased legal development, public–private partnerships, and national capacity-building. The study further argues that latecomer nations can avoid rigid legacy institutions by adopting modular governance structures and targeted specialization in areas such as Earth observation, geospatial services, and ground infrastructure. By leveraging geographic advantages and human capital, Mongolia and other emerging space nations can strengthen digital sovereignty and improve institutional resilience. Adaptive governance approaches can also support their long-term participation in the global space economy.