Assessing the impact of intervention strategies on dengue dynamics in Shenzhen, China

Abstract

Background A dramatic increase in dengue infections has been observed in recent years, raising concerns regarding the potential further spread of dengue. Shenzhen, a major international port city in China, is typically a non-endemic region; however, it faces persistent risks from imported cases. The resurgence of imported risk has made the identification of effective prevention and control strategies a pressing public health priority for the region. Methodology We integrated epidemic, environmental, and intervention data from Shenzhen covering the period from 2015 to 2023. A compartmental mathematical model was developed to characterize the transmission dynamics of dengue triggered by imported cases. We applied sensitivity analysis and developed a quantitative metric to evaluate the relative efficacy of various non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies in this specific urban context. Findings Our sensitivity analysis identified vector control and the reduction of mosquito biting rates as the most critical factors influencing transmission dynamics. These analytical results were further validated through simulations based on a model fitted to historical data, which revealed that prioritizing these strategies significantly mitigated dengue transmission risks. Compared to alternative measures, these targeted interventions demonstrated a substantially higher impact on reducing the risk and scale of local outbreaks. Conclusions This study provides a practical, evidence-based tool for health authorities to prioritize interventions in at-risk hub cities. Our findings underscore that for non-endemic port cities like Shenzhen, focusing on rigorous vector management and biting rate reduction is critical for mitigating the risk of dengue epidemics. These insights offer a strategic framework for guiding future epidemic control efforts against vector-borne diseases in non-endemic urban environments.