Modeling Climate-Sensitive Dengue Transmission in Balochistan Using District-Level Epidemiological Data
TL;DR
The findings indicate that dengue transmission in Balochistan is highly climate-sensitive and increasingly shifting toward an endemic transmission pattern, and strengthening climate-informed surveillance systems, improving early warning mechanisms, enhancing vector control strategies, and promoting community awareness are essential for reducing the growing dengue burden in the region.
Abstract
Dengue fever has emerged as a major public health concern in Pakistan, particularly in Balochistan, where climatic variability and limited surveillance infrastructure have contributed to increasing disease burden. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between climatic factors and dengue transmission across multiple districts of Balochistan using a retrospective district-level epidemiological approach. Dengue surveillance data were collected from Public Health Laboratories, District Health Offices (DHOs), dengue surveillance units, and People’s Primary Healthcare Initiative (PPHI) centers, while climatic variables including temperature, rainfall, and humidity were obtained from national and global meteorological sources. The integrated datasets were analyzed using RStudio to assess seasonal trends, spatial distribution, and climate–dengue associations through descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and negative binomial regression modeling. A total of 26,482 confirmed dengue cases were identified from 125,780 diagnostic tests conducted during 2024. The highest disease burden was observed in Turbat, Panjgur, Jhal Magsi, and Khuzdar districts. Dengue incidence showed a strong seasonal pattern, with cases increasing sharply during the summer and post-monsoon months and peaking in September. Regression analysis demonstrated that increasing temperature was significantly associated with higher dengue incidence, while rainfall exhibited delayed effects through enhanced vector breeding conditions. The combined influence of high temperature and high rainfall produced the greatest transmission intensity. The findings indicate that dengue transmission in Balochistan is highly climate-sensitive and increasingly shifting toward an endemic transmission pattern. Strengthening climate-informed surveillance systems, improving early warning mechanisms, enhancing vector control strategies, and promoting community awareness are essential for reducing the growing dengue burden in the region.