Possibility of Covering Electricity Needs of Balkan Peninsula by using Wind and Solar

Abstract

The Balkan Peninsula possesses abundant wind and solar resources, yet their ability to reliably meet regional electricity demand remains underexplored. This study quantifies installed capacities, resource potentials, hourly production patterns, and seasonal complementarity of wind and solar generation across 11 Balkan countries using data from PVGIS, Global Wind Atlas and ENTSO-E (2024-2025). Results indicate that current variable renewable energy penetration remains low (15-25% of capacity in leading countries), but technical potential far exceeds annual consumption of 300 TWh. Seasonal complementarity is strong: winter wind speeds peak (8.1-8.5 m/s along coastal areas) when solar output is minimal, while summer solar irradiation reaches 4.14 (kWh/kWp)/day in Greece, aligning with cooling demand. A balanced portfolio (approximately 55% wind, 45% solar) reduces hourly residual load variability by 40-60% compared to single-source scenarios. However, even with optimal mixing, meeting 100% of demand would require 12-24 hours of storage (approximately 15-30 GWh of storage capacity per GW of peak load) plus enhanced cross-border interconnections. We conclude that wind and solar can supply 70-85% of Balkan electricity by 2040 with moderate storage, but full decarbonization requires complementary hydropower, grid modernization, and regional balancing markets. These findings support energy policy under the Energy Community Treaty.