Regional equity implications of heat pump flexibility in a decarbonised power system

Abstract

Extended abstract 2-004-26 Future electricity systems with high renewable penetration will require substantially more operational flexibility, and residential heat pumps are expected to become a major provider of such flexibility. However, adjusting heat pump operation inevitably alters indoor temperatures, and the resulting thermal discomfort may not be experienced equally across regions. Differences in power system’s infrastructure, access to alternative flexibility resources, and local generation mixes can cause some areas to bear a greater share of comfort sacrifices, raising equity concerns. This study explores the regional equity implications of heat pump flexibility within a decarbonised Great Britain power system. We develop an optimisation-based electricity system framework that integrates an endogenous representation of inequity using a Gini coefficient derived from deviations between actual and preferred indoor temperatures. The model evaluates how varying flexibility ranges, expressed as allowable indoor temperature bands, influence both system operation and the spatial distribution of thermal comfort outcomes. In addition, heterogeneous comfort preferences are introduced by assigning region-specific optimal indoor temperature levels, reflecting differences in climatic conditions and social expectations. Results indicate that expanding flexibility ranges can significantly enhance system balancing capability and reduce reliance on conventional flexibility resources. However, without explicit equity considerations, the optimisation tends to concentrate temperature deviations in regions with fewer local flexibility options. Introducing Gini-based constraints helps redistribute thermal adjustments more evenly, although tighter equity requirements may alter dispatch patterns and slightly reduce operational efficiency. Furthermore, incorporating differentiated comfort baselines reveals that regional heterogeneity can amplify inequitable outcomes if flexibility strategies are designed solely from a least-cost perspective. These findings highlight the importance of embedding equity metrics directly into operational decision-making frameworks for future heating systems. Rather than treating equity as an ex-post evaluation, the study demonstrates how equity-aware optimisation can inform more socially balanced flexibility strategies. The results provide insights for policymakers and system planners seeking to design demand-side flexibility mechanisms that support decarbonisation while avoiding unintended regional disparities in thermal comfort. Read the full abstract. Download presentation.