The Impact Of Exports On Economic Growth In Algeria During The Period 2000–2024 An Econometric Study

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the impact of exports on economic growth in Algeria during the period 2000–2024, drawing on annual data extracted from the World Bank's World Development Indicators database. The study focused on testing the nature of the relationship between real GDP growth and real export growth, incorporating the change in the export share of GDP and a time trend within an extended model. The estimation results, using the Ordinary Least Squares method with Newey-West corrected standard errors, showed a positive and statistically significant relationship between export growth and GDP growth; the export coefficient reached 0.269, meaning that a one-percentage-point increase in export growth is associated with an approximately 0.27 percentage-point increase in economic growth. In contrast, neither the change in the export share of GDP nor lagged export growth showed a significant effect. Diagnostic tests also revealed the presence of autocorrelation and issues related to the normality of residuals and model specification, which requires interpreting the results with caution and not treating them as evidence of a purely causal relationship. The study concludes that strengthening the impact of exports requires diversifying them beyond the hydrocarbon sector, improving competitiveness, supporting productive enterprises, developing logistical and financial infrastructure, and adopting more advanced econometric models in future studies.