Tendência temporal da incidência de tuberculose em adultos brasileiros, no período de 2001 a 2021

Abstract

Background and Objectives: Tuberculosis is a communicable disease and a serious public health problem, with Brazil ranking among the countries with the highest burden of the disease. For epidemiological surveillance and tuberculosis control, time-series studies are important to investigate temporal patterns in disease occurrence. The aim of this study was to analyze temporal trends in tuberculosis incidence among Brazilian adults over a 21-year period. Methods: We conducted an ecological epidemiological study of tuberculosis notification data for the Brazilian adult population (age 20-59 years) between 2001 and 2021, obtained from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN). We calculated overall incidence and specific rates by sex, age group, and clinical form. Temporal trends were analyzed using the Prais–Winsten regression model, and Annual Percent Change (APC) was estimated. Results: A total of 1,446,499 adult cases of tuberculosis were reported in Brazil, and a decreasing trend was observed for overall incidence (β = -0.005; p < 0.001; APC = -1.3%). Regarding age group, sex, and clinical form, all strata showed a decreasing trend, except for the 20–29-year age group, which showed a stationary trend (β = 0.001; p = 0.643; APC = 0.2%). Conclusion: Notwithstanding the stationery trend in the 20–29-year age group, there was a decreasing trend in the overall incidence rate of tuberculosis in Brazilian adults, although this remains far from global targets for disease control. The findings highlight that Brazil still faces major challenges for tuberculosis prevention and control.