Integrating ensemble species distribution modeling and ecological niche dynamics to assess climate-driven distributional changes of two major forest pests (Anoplophora chinensis and Anoplophora glabripennis) in China

Assessing Potential Changes in the Distribution of Major Warm–Temperate Tree Species in South Korea Under Climate Change Scenarios

Climate change drives shifts in forest vegetation zones, and the major tree species of warm–temperate evergreen broad-leaved forests in South Korea are also expected to undergo changes in their potential distributions under future climate conditions. This study applied a Committee Averaging (CA) ensemble species distribution model to Quercus acuta, Machilus thunbergii, Quercus glauca, and Castanopsis sieboldii to project changes in their potential distributions under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) across two future periods (2050s and 2090s). To compare interspecific differences in response more clearly, we applied a two-tier threshold scheme that distinguished potential habitat (agreement ≥0.6) from highly suitable habitat (>0.8), and we concurrently conducted a Multivariate Environmental Similarity Surface (MESS) analysis to assess predictive uncertainty arising from extrapolation into future climates. The CA ensemble models showed excellent predictive performance (AUC 0.947–0.989; TSS 0.837–0.943). For Q. acuta, M. thunbergii, and Q. glauca, potential habitat expanded consistently across all SSP scenarios, and highly suitable habitat shifted northward into parts of the central and Gangwon regions. In contrast, both the potential habitat and the highly suitable habitat of C. sieboldii contracted under most future scenarios. These results demonstrate that even species belonging to the same warm–temperate evergreen broad-leaved forest community can respond differently to future climate. The two-tier threshold scheme applied in this study was effective not only for assessing whether distributions expand but also for delineating and evaluating climatically stable core habitats. Although our findings need to be interpreted in light of the uncertainty associated with extrapolation into future climates, they can serve as useful baseline data for establishing climate-change-adaptive forest conservation and species-specific management strategies.

Climate Change Impacts on Agroforestry Suitability in the Amazon: CMIP6-Based Projections for Theobroma grandiflorum

Climate change is expected to significantly alter surface air temperature and precipitation regimes across the Amazon Basin, with direct implications for agroforestry systems and climate-sensitive perennial crops. This study projects the impacts of anthropogenic global warming on the habitat suitability of Theobroma grandiflorum (cupuaçu), a keystone species for Amazonian agroforestry, local livelihoods, and the bioeconomy. Using an ensemble species distribution modeling (SDM) framework, we applied multiple algorithms and two CMIP6 global climate models (BCC-CSM2-MR and MIROC6) under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the near-future (2021–2040) and far-future (2061–2080). Contrary to the range contractions projected for many Amazonian endemics, our ensemble projections reveal a consistent trend of expanding climatically suitable area, primarily into adjacent ecological transition zones. This expansion is driven largely by basin-wide increases in mean annual temperature, the most influential predictor in our modeling study. Quantitatively, we project a net habitat expansion of 32.2% (415,114 km2) under high-concordance future scenarios. A core climate refuge of 955,570 km2, representing 74.2% of the current suitable range, is identified as a high priority for in situ conservation. Conversely, approximately 25.8% of the current range (331,919 km2) may become climatically unsuitable, particularly in parts of the western Amazon. These findings suggest that reducing thermal constraints in currently marginal areas could open opportunities for integrating cupuaçu into climate-resilient agroforestry systems beyond its present distribution. Such heterogeneous responses of Amazonian agroforestry species to climate change highlight the importance of incorporating species-specific climate sensitivities into adaptation planning, land-use strategies, and climate-resilient bioeconomy policies under future warming scenarios.

Climate change-driven range shifts in a cosmopolitan synanthropic insect: global habitat suitability modeling and projections for Clogmia albipunctata

Impact of Climate Change on the Spatial Dynamics of Habitats Suitable for the Genus Clusia L. in Peru

Climate change is expected to reshape the climatic suitability of Neotropical plant taxa, particularly in topographically complex regions such as the tropical Andes, yet no nationwide assessment exists for the genus Clusia L. (Clusiaceae) in Peru. We modeled its current and future potential distribution using MaxEnt, based on 245 spatially thinned occurrence records (GBIF) and bioclimatic variables from WorldClim 2.1 selected through Pearson correlation and variance inflation factor filtering. Model complexity was tuned with ENMeval using spatial block cross-validation, and future projections were generated under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100 across three Global Climate Models. The model showed acceptable, stable performance (training AUC = 0.824, test AUC = 0.825), with elevation and precipitation seasonality (Bio15) as the leading predictors, together with Bio19 and Bio3 accounting for over 80% of the total contribution. Currently, only 16.61% of Peru is climatically suitable (medium–high) for the genus, concentrated discontinuously along Andean slopes and inter-Andean valleys. Both future scenarios project progressive contraction and fragmentation of suitable habitat, most severe under SSP5-8.5, where high-loss areas reach 50.43% of the evaluated territory by 2081–2100; these projections should be interpreted as plausible scenarios rather than validated forecasts, given the absence of independent data for future periods. Habitat gains were restricted to higher elevations, consistent with an altitudinal range shift. These results provide a coarse-scale spatial baseline that highlights broad patterns of climatic vulnerability for the genus, intended to guide exploratory conservation attention and future species-level research in the Andean region, rather than site-specific management decisions.

Impact of current and future climate change on the potential habitat suitability of Quercus coccifera L. in the Southern Mediterranean: Comparative study

Prediction of the spatial distribution of barbary partridge ecological niches using bioclimatic databases under future climate scenarios in the Fez-Meknes region (Morocco)